Thursday, January 16, 2020
Tyrion They have my son,Ã¢â¬ Tywin Lannister said. Ã¢â¬Å"They do, my lord.Ã¢â¬ The messenger's voice was dulled by exhaustion. On the breast of his torn surcoat, the brindled boar of Crakehall was half-obscured by dried blood. One of your sons, Tyrion thought. He took a sip of wine and said not a word, thinking of Jaime. When he lifted his arm, pain shot through his elbow, reminding him of his own brief taste of battle. He loved his brother, but he would not have wanted to be with him in the Whispering Wood for all the gold in Casterly Rock. His lord father's assembled captains and bannermen had fallen very quiet as the courier told his tale. The only sound was the crackle and hiss of the log burning in the hearth at the end of the long, drafty common room. After the hardships of the long relentless drive south, the prospect of even a single night in an inn had cheered Tyrion mightily . . . though he rather wished it had not been this inn again, with all its memories. His father had set a grueling pace, and it had taken its toll. Men wounded in the battle kept up as best they could or were abandoned to fend for themselves. Every morning they left a few more by the roadside, men who went to sleep never to wake. Every afternoon a few more collapsed along the way. And every evening a few more deserted, stealing off into the dusk. Tyrion had been half-tempted to go with them. He had been upstairs, enjoying the comfort of a featherbed and the warmth of Shae's body beside him, when his squire had woken him to say that a rider had arrived with dire news of Riverrun. So it had all been for nothing. The rush south, the endless forced marches, the bodies left beside the road . . . all for naught. Robb Stark had reached Riverrun days and days ago. Ã¢â¬Å"How could this happen?Ã¢â¬ Ser Harys Swyft moaned. Ã¢â¬Å"How? Even after the Whispering Wood, you had Riverrun ringed in iron, surrounded by a great host . . . what madness made Ser Jaime decide to split his men into three separate camps? Surely he knew how vulnerable that would leave them?Ã¢â¬ Better than you, you chinless craven, Tyrion thought. Jaime might have lost Riverrun, but it angered him to hear his brother slandered by the likes of Swyft, a shameless lickspittle whose greatest accomplishment was marrying his equally chinless daughter to Ser Kevan, and thereby attaching himself to the Lannisters. Ã¢â¬Å"I would have done the same,Ã¢â¬ his uncle responded, a good deal more calmly than Tyrion might have. Ã¢â¬Å"You have never seen Riverrun, Ser Harys, or you would know that Jaime had little choice in the matter. The castle is situated at the end of the point of land where the Tumblestone flows into the Red Fork of the Trident. The rivers form two sides of a triangle, and when danger threatens, the Tullys open their sluice gates upstream to create a wide moat on the third side, turning Riverrun into an island. The walls rise sheer from the water, and from their towers the defenders have a commanding view of the opposite shores for many leagues around. To cut off all the approaches, a besieger must needs place one camp north of the Tumblestone, one south of the Red Fork, and a third between the rivers, west of the moat. There is no other way, none.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Ser Kevan speaks truly, my lords,Ã¢â¬ the courier said. Ã¢â¬Å"We'd built palisades of sharpened stakes around the camps, yet it was not enough, not with no warning and the rivers cutting us off from each other. They came down on the north camp first. No one was expecting an attack. Marq Piper had been raiding our supply trains, but he had no more than fifty men. Ser Jaime had gone out to deal with them the night before . . . well, with what we thought was them. We were told the Stark host was east of the Green Fork, marching south . . . Ã¢â¬Å" Ã¢â¬Å"And your outriders?Ã¢â¬ Ser Gregor Clegane's face might have been hewn from rock. The fire in the hearth gave a somber orange cast to his skin and put deep shadows in the hollows of his eyes. Ã¢â¬Å"They saw nothing? They gave you no warning?Ã¢â¬ The bloodstained messenger shook his head. Ã¢â¬Å"Our outriders had been vanishing. Marq Piper's work, we thought. The ones who did come back had seen nothing.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"A man who sees nothing has no use for his eyes,Ã¢â¬ the Mountain declared. Ã¢â¬Å"Cut them out and give them to your next outrider. Tell him you hope that four eyes might see better than two . . . and if not, the man after him will have six.Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin Lannister turned his face to study Ser Gregor. Tyrion saw a glimmer of gold as the light shone off his father's pupils, but he could not have said whether the look was one of approval or disgust. Lord Tywin was oft quiet in council, preferring to listen before he spoke, a habit Tyrion himself tried to emulate. Yet this silence was uncharacteristic even for him, and his wine was untouched. Ã¢â¬Å"You said they came at night,Ã¢â¬ Ser Kevan prompted. The man gave a weary nod. Ã¢â¬Å"The Blackfish led the van, cutting down our sentries and clearing away the palisades for the main assault. By the time our men knew what was happening, riders were pouring over the ditch banks and galloping through the camp with swords and torches in hand. I was sleeping in the west camp, between the rivers. When we heard the fighting and saw the tents being fired, Lord Brax led us to the rafts and we tried to pole across, but the current pushed us downstream and the Tullys started flinging rocks at us with the catapults on their walls. I saw one raft smashed to kindling and three others overturned, men swept into the river and drowned . . . and those who did make it across found the Starks waiting for them on the riverbanks.Ã¢â¬ Ser Flement Brax wore a silver-and-purple tabard and the look of a man who cannot comprehend what he has just heard. Ã¢â¬Å"My lord fatherÃ¢â¬âÃ¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Sorry, my lord,Ã¢â¬ the messenger said. Ã¢â¬Å"Lord Brax was clad in plate-and-mail when his raft overturned. He was very gallant.Ã¢â¬ He was a fool, Tyrion thought, swirling his cup and staring down into the winy depths. Crossing a river at night on a crude raft, wearing armor, with an enemy waiting on the other sideÃ¢â¬âif that was gallantry, he would take cowardice every time. He wondered if Lord Brax had felt especially gallant as the weight of his steel pulled him under the black water. Ã¢â¬Å"The camp between the rivers was overrun as well,Ã¢â¬ the messenger was saying. Ã¢â¬Å"While we were trying to cross, more Starks swept in from the west, two columns of armored horse. I saw Lord Umber's giant-in-chains and the Mallister eagle, but it was the boy who led them, with a monstrous wolf running at his side. I wasn't there to see, but it's said the beast killed four men and ripped apart a dozen horses. Our spearmen formed up a shieldwall and held against their first charge, but when the Tullys saw them engaged, they opened the gates of Riverrun and Tytos Blackwood led a sortie across the drawbridge and took them in the rear.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Gods save us,Ã¢â¬ Lord Lefford swore. Ã¢â¬Å"Greatjon Umber fired the siege towers we were building, and Lord Blackwood found Ser Edmure Tully in chains among the other captives, and made off with them all. Our south camp was under the command of Ser Forley Prester. He retreated in good order when he saw that the other camps were lost, with two thousand spears and as many bowmen, but the Tyroshi sellsword who led his freeriders struck his banners and went over to the foe.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Curse the man.Ã¢â¬ His uncle Kevan sounded more angry than surprised. Ã¢â¬Å"I warned Jaime not to trust that one. A man who fights for coin is loyal only to his purse.Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin wove his fingers together under his chin. Only his eyes moved as he listened. His bristling golden side-whiskers framed a face so still it might have been a mask, but Tyrion could see tiny beads of sweat dappling his father's shaven head. Ã¢â¬Å"How could it happen?Ã¢â¬ Ser Harys Swyft wailed again. Ã¢â¬Å"Ser Jaime taken, the siege broken . . . this is a catastrophe!Ã¢â¬ Ser Addam Marbrand said, Ã¢â¬Å"I am sure we are all grateful to you for pointing out the obvious, Ser Harys. The question is, what shall we do about it?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"What can we do? Jaime's host is all slaughtered or taken or put to flight, and the Starks and the Tullys sit squarely across our line of supply. We are cut off from the west! They can march on Casterly Rock if they so choose, and what's to stop them? My lords, we are beaten. We must sue for peace.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Peace?Ã¢â¬ Tyrion swirled his wine thoughtfully, took a deep draft, and hurled his empty cup to the floor, where it shattered into a thousand pieces. Ã¢â¬Å"There's your peace, Ser Harys. My sweet nephew broke it for good and all when he decided to ornament the Red Keep with Lord Eddard's head. You'll have an easier time drinking wine from that cup than you will convincing Robb Stark to make peace now. He's winning . . . or hadn't you noticed?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Two battles do not make a war,Ã¢â¬ Ser Addam insisted. Ã¢â¬Å"We are far from lost. I should welcome the chance to try my own steel against this Stark boy.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Perhaps they would consent to a truce, and allow us to trade our prisoners for theirs,Ã¢â¬ offered Lord Lefford. Ã¢â¬Å"Unless they trade three-for-one, we still come out light on those scales,Ã¢â¬ Tyrion said acidly. Ã¢â¬Å"And what are we to offer for my brother? Lord Eddard's rotting head?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"I had heard that Queen Cersei has the Hand's daughters,Ã¢â¬ Lefford said hopefully. Ã¢â¬Å"If we give the lad his sisters back . . . Ã¢â¬Å" Ser Addam snorted disdainfully. Ã¢â¬Å"He would have to be an utter ass to trade Jaime Lannister's life for two girls.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Then we must ransom Ser Jaime, whatever it costs,Ã¢â¬ Lord Lefford said. Tyrion rolled his eyes. Ã¢â¬Å"If the Starks feel the need for gold, they can melt down Jaime's armor.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"if we ask for a truce, they will think us weak,Ã¢â¬ Ser Addarn argued. Ã¢â¬Å"We should march on them at once.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Surely our friends at court could be prevailed upon to join us with fresh troops,Ã¢â¬ said Ser Harys. Ã¢â¬Å"And someone might return to Casterly Rock to raise a new host.Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin Lannister rose to his feet. Ã¢â¬Å"They have my son,Ã¢â¬ he said once more, in a voice that cut through the babble like a sword through suet. Ã¢â¬Å"Leave me. All of you.Ã¢â¬ Ever the soul of obedience, Tyrion rose to depart with the rest, but his father gave him a look. Ã¢â¬Å"Not you, Tyrion. Remain. And you as well, Kevan. The rest of you, out.Ã¢â¬ Tyrion eased himself back onto the bench, startled into speechlessness. Ser Kevan crossed the room to the wine casks. Ã¢â¬Å"Uncle,Ã¢â¬ Tyrion called, Ã¢â¬Å"if you would be so kindÃ¢â¬âÃ¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Here.Ã¢â¬ His father offered him his cup, the wine untouched. Now Tyrion truly was nonplussed. He drank. Lord Tywin seated himself. Ã¢â¬Å"You have the right of it about Stark. Alive, we might have used Lord Eddard to forge a peace with Winterfell and Riverrun, a peace that would have given us the time we need to deal with Robert's brothers. Dead . . . Ã¢â¬ His hand curled into a fist. Ã¢â¬Å"Madness. Rank madness.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Joff's only a boy,Ã¢â¬ Tyrion pointed out. Ã¢â¬Å"At his age, I committed a few follies of my own.Ã¢â¬ His father gave him a sharp look. Ã¢â¬Å"I suppose we ought to be grateful that he has not yet married a whore.Ã¢â¬ Tyrion sipped at his wine, wondering how Lord Tywin would look if he flung the cup in his face. Ã¢â¬Å"Our position is worse than you know,Ã¢â¬ his father went on. Ã¢â¬Å"It would seem we have a new king.Ã¢â¬ Ser Kevan looked poleaxed. Ã¢â¬Å"A newÃ¢â¬âwho? What have they done to Joffrey?Ã¢â¬ The faintest flicker of distaste played across Lord Tywin's thin lips. Ã¢â¬Å"Nothing . . . yet. My grandson still sits the Iron Throne, but the eunuch has heard whispers from the south. Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride's father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Those are grave tidings.Ã¢â¬ When Ser Kevan frowned, the furrows in his brow grew deep as canyons. Ã¢â¬Å"My daughter commands us to ride for King's Landing at once, to defend the Red Keep against King Renly and the Knight of Flowers.Ã¢â¬ His mouth tightened. Ã¢â¬Å"Commands us, mind you. In the name of the king and council.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"How is King Joffrey taking the news?Ã¢â¬ Tyrion asked with a certain black amusement. Ã¢â¬Å"Cersei has not seen fit to tell him yet,Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin said. Ã¢â¬Å"She fears he might insist on marching against Renly himself.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"With what army?Ã¢â¬ Tyrion asked. Ã¢â¬Å"You don't plan to give him this one, I hope?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"He talks of leading the City Watch,Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin said. Ã¢â¬Å"If he takes the Watch, he'll leave the city undefended,Ã¢â¬ Ser Kevan said. Ã¢â¬Å"And with Lord Stannis on Dragonstone . . . Ã¢â¬Å" Ã¢â¬Å"Yes.Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin looked down at his son. Ã¢â¬Å"I had thought you were the one made for motley, Tyrion, but it would appear that I was wrong.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Why, Father,Ã¢â¬ said Tyrion, Ã¢â¬Å"that almost sounds like praise.Ã¢â¬ He leaned forward intently. Ã¢â¬Å"What of Stannis? He's the elder, not Renly. How does he feel about his brother's claim?Ã¢â¬ His father frowned. Ã¢â¬Å"I have felt from the beginning that Stannis was a greater danger than all the others combined. Yet he does nothing. Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai. What does it mean? Is any of it true?Ã¢â¬ He gave an irritated shrug. Ã¢â¬Å"Kevan, bring us the map.Ã¢â¬ Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. Ã¢â¬Å"Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners.Ã¢â¬ Tyrion smiled crookedly. Ã¢â¬Å"Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"I had hoped you might have more to offer us than japes, Tyrion,Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin Lannister said. Ser Kevan frowned over the map, forehead creasing. Ã¢â¬Å"Robb Stark will have Edmure Tully and the lords of the Trident with him now. Their combined power may exceed our own. And with Roose Bolton behind us . . . Tywin, if we remain here, I fear we might be caught between three armies.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"I have no intention of remaining here. We must finish our business with young Lord Stark before Renly Baratheon can march from Highgarden. Bolton does not concern me. He is a wary man, and we made him warier on the Green Fork. He will be slow to give pursuit. So . . . on the morrow, we make for Harrenhal. Kevan, I want Ser Addam's outriders to screen our movements. Give him as many men as he requires, and send them out in groups of four. I will have no vanishings.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"As you say, my lord, but . . . why Harrenhal? That is a grim, unlucky place. Some call it cursed.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Let them,Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin said. Ã¢â¬Å"Unleash Ser Gregor and send him before us with his reavers. Send forth Vargo Hoat and his freeriders as well, and Ser Amory Lorch. Each is to have three hundred horse. Tell them I want to see the riverlands afire from the Gods Eye to the Red Fork.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"They will burn, my lord,Ã¢â¬ Ser Kevan said, rising. Ã¢â¬Å"I shall give the commands.Ã¢â¬ He bowed and made for the door. When they were alone, Lord Tywin glanced at Tyrion. Ã¢â¬Å"Your savages might relish a bit of rapine. Tell them they may ride with Vargo Hoat and plunder as they likeÃ¢â¬âgoods, stock, women, they may take what they want and burn the rest.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Telling Shagga and Timett how to pillage is like telling a rooster how to crow,Ã¢â¬ Tyrion commented, Ã¢â¬Å"but I should prefer to keep them with me.Ã¢â¬ Uncouth and unruly they might be, yet the wildlings were his, and he trusted them more than any of his father's men. He was not about to hand them over. Ã¢â¬Å"Then you had best learn to control them. I will not have the city plundered.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"The city?Ã¢â¬ Tyrion was lost. Ã¢â¬Å"What city would that be?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"King's Landing. I am sending you to court.Ã¢â¬ It was the last thing Tyrion Lannister would ever have anticipated. He reached for his wine, and considered for a moment as he sipped. Ã¢â¬Å"And what am I to do there?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Rule,Ã¢â¬ his father said curtly Tyrion hooted with laughter. Ã¢â¬Å"My sweet sister might have a word or two to say about that!Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Let her say what she likes. Her son needs to be taken in hand before he ruins us all. I blame those jackanapes on the councilÃ¢â¬âour friend Petyr, the venerable Grand Maester, and that cockless wonder Lord Varys. What sort of counsel are they giving Joffrey when he lurches from one folly to the next? Whose notion was it to make this Janos Slynt a lord? The man's father was a butcher, and they grant him Harrenhal. Harrenhal, that was the seat of kings! Not that he will ever set foot inside it, if I have a say. I am told he took a bloody spear for his sigil. A bloody cleaver would have been my choice.Ã¢â¬ His father had not raised his voice, yet Tyrion could see the anger in the gold of his eyes. Ã¢â¬Å"And dismissing Selmy, where was the sense in that? Yes, the man was old, but the name of Barristan the Bold still has meaning in the realm. He lent honor to any man he served. Can anyone say the same of the Hound? You feed your dog bones under the table, you do not seat hi m beside you on the high bench.Ã¢â¬ He pointed a finger at Tyrion's face. Ã¢â¬Å"If Cersei cannot curb the boy, you must. And if these councillors are playing us false . . . Ã¢â¬Å" Tyrion knew. Ã¢â¬Å"Spikes,Ã¢â¬ he sighed. Ã¢â¬Å"Heads. Walls.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"I see you have taken a few lessons from me.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"More than you know, Father,Ã¢â¬ Tyrion answered quietly. He finished his wine and set the cup aside, thoughtful. A part of him was more pleased than he cared to admit. Another part was remembering the battle upriver, and wondering if he was being sent to hold the left again. Ã¢â¬Å"Why me?Ã¢â¬ he asked, cocking his head to one side. Ã¢â¬Å"Why not my uncle? Why not Ser Addam or Ser Flement or Lord Serrett? Why not a . . . bigger man?Ã¢â¬ Lord Tywin rose abruptly. Ã¢â¬Å"You are my son.Ã¢â¬ That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime's good as dead, so I'm all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said. Yet he sat there, silent and still. The shards of the broken cup crunched beneath his father's heels as Lord Tywin crossed the room. Ã¢â¬Å"One last thing,Ã¢â¬ he said at the door. Ã¢â¬Å"You will not take the whore to court.Ã¢â¬ Tyrion sat alone in the common room for a long while after his father was gone. Finally he climbed the steps to his cozy garret beneath the bell tower. The ceiling was low, but that was scarcely a drawback for a dwarf. From the window, he could see the gibbet his father had erected in the yard. The innkeep's body turned slowly on its rope whenever the night wind gusted. Her flesh had grown as thin and ragged as Lannister hopes. Shae murmured sleepily and rolled toward him when he sat on the edge of the featherbed. He slid his hand under the blanket and cupped a soft breast, and her eyes opened. Ã¢â¬Å"M'lord,Ã¢â¬ she said with a drowsy smile. When he felt her nipple stiffen, Tyrion kissed her. Ã¢â¬Å"I have a mind to take you to King's Landing, sweetling,Ã¢â¬ he whispered.
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
Powerball is a multistate lottery that is quite popular due to its multimillion-dollar jackpots. Some of these jackpots reach values that are well over $100 million. An interesting quest ion from a probabilisticÃ sense is, Ã¢â¬Å"How are the odds calculated on the likelihood of winning Powerball?Ã¢â¬ The Rules First we will examine the rules of Powerball as it is currently configured. During each drawing, two drums full of balls are thoroughly mixed and randomized. The first drum contains white balls numbered 1 to 59. Five are drawn without replacement from this drum. The second drum has red balls that are numbered from 1 to 35. One of these is drawn. The object is to match as many of these numbers as possible. The Prizes The full jackpot is won when all six numbers selected by a player match perfectly with the balls that are drawn. There are prizes with lesser values for partial matching, for a total of nine different ways to win some dollar amount from Powerball. These ways of winning are: Matching all five white balls and the red ball wins the grand prize jackpot. The value of this varies depending upon how long it has been since someone has won this grand prize.Matching all five white balls but not the red ball wins $1,000,000.Matching exactly four of the five white balls and the red ball wins $10,000.Matching exactly four of the five white balls but not the red ball wins $100.Matching exactly three of the five white balls and the red ball wins $100.Matching exactly three of the five white balls but not the red ball wins $7.Matching exactly two of the five white balls and the red ball wins $7.Matching exactly one of the five white balls and the red ball wins $4.Matching just the red ball but none of the white balls wins $4. We will look at how to calculate each of these probabilities. Throughout these calculations, it is important to note that the order of how the balls come out of the drum is not important. The only thing that matters is the set of balls that are drawn. For this reason our calculations involve combinations and not permutations. Also useful in every calculation below is the total number of combinations that can be drawn. We have five selected from the 59 white balls, or using the notation for combinations, C(59, 5) 5,006,386 ways for this to occur. There are 35 ways to select the red ball, resulting in 35 x 5,006,386 175,223,510 possible selections. Jackpot Although the jackpot of matching all six balls is the most difficult to obtain, it is the easiest probability to calculate. Out of the multitude of 175,223,510 possible selections, there is exactly one way to win the jackpot. Thus the probability that a particular ticket wins the jackpot is 1/175,223,510. Five White Balls To win $1,000,000 we need to match the five white balls, but not the red one. There is only one way to match all five. There are 34 ways to not match the red ball. So the probability of winning $1,000,000 is 34/175,223,510, or approximately 1/5,153,633. Four White Balls and One Red For a prize of $10,000, we must match four of the five white balls and the red one. There are C(5,4) 5 ways to match four of the five. The fifth ball must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 1) 54 ways for this to happen. There is only 1 way to match the red ball. This means that there are 5 x 54 x 1 270 ways to match exactly four white balls and the red one, giving a probability of 270/175,223,510, or approximately 1/648,976. Four White Balls and No Red One way to win a prize of $100 is to match four of the five white balls and not match the red one. As in the previous case, there are C(5,4) 5 ways to match four of the five. The fifth ball must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 1) 54 ways for this to happen. This time, there are 34 ways to not match the red ball. This means that there are 5 x 54 x 34 9180 ways to match exactly four white balls but not the red one, giving a probability of 9180/175,223,510, or approximately 1/19,088. Three White Balls and One Red Another way to win a prize of $100 is to match exactly three of the five white balls and also match the red one. There are C(5,3) 10 ways to match three of the five. The remaining white balls must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 2) 1431 ways for this to happen. There is one way to match the red ball. This means that there are 10 x 1431 x 1 14,310 ways to match exactly three white balls and the red one, giving a probability of 14,310/175,223,510, or approximately 1/12,245. Three White Balls and No Red One way to win a prize of $7 is to match exactly three of the five white balls and not match the red one. There are C(5,3) 10 ways to match three of the five. The remaining white balls must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 2) 1431 ways for this to happen. This time there are 34 ways to not match the red ball. This means that there are 10 x 1431 x 34 486,540 ways to match exactly three white balls but not the red one, giving a probability of 486,540/175,223,510, or approximately 1/360. Two White Balls and One Red Another way to win a prize of $7 is to match exactly two of the five white balls and also match the red one. There are C(5,2) 10 ways to match two of the five. The remaining white balls must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 3) 24,804 ways for this to happen. There is one way to match the red ball. This means that there are 10 x 24,804 x 1 248,040 ways to match exactly two white balls and the red one, giving a probability of 248,040/175,223,510, or approximately 1/706. One White Ball and One Red One way to win a prize of $4 is to match exactly one of the five white balls and also match the red one. There are C(5,4) 5 ways to match one of the five. The remaining white balls must be one of the remaining 54 that were not drawn, and so there are C(54, 4) 316,251 ways for this to happen. There is one way to match the red ball. This means that there are 5 x 316,251 x1 1,581,255 ways to match exactly one white ball and the red one, giving a probability of 1,581,255/175,223,510, or approximately 1/111. One Red Ball Another way to win a prize of $4 is to match none of the five white balls but match the red one. There are 54 balls that are not any of the five selected, and we have C(54, 5) 3,162,510 ways for this to happen. There is one way to match the red ball. This means that there are 3,162,510 ways to match none of the balls except for the red one, giving a probability of 3,162,510/175,223,510, or approximately 1/55. This case is somewhat counterintuitive. There are 36 red balls, so we may think that the probability of matching one of them would be 1/36. However, this neglects the other conditions imposed by the white balls. Many combinations involving the correct red ball also include matches on some of the white balls as well.
Monday, December 30, 2019
The capital punishment, known as the death penalty has been a widely debated topic in America over its constitutionality after being reinstated in 1976. There are two distinct sides in the debate over whether the death penalty is an unjust punishment. The debate spreads over to whether mentally ill and juveniles should be tried as adults and receive the death penalty or if their mental capacity restrains the government from issuing the punishment. Not only that, but the methods used to administer the punishment are also being picked and pried. The death penalty has been occurring in America since the colonial times when settlers came from Europe. At that time, they used hanging as the most common execution method. This persisted until theÃ¢â¬ ¦show more contentÃ¢â¬ ¦The court used the public opinion to determine their views on death for raping. Only a few states at that time had allowed death for rapists. The 2008 Kennedy v. Louisiana extened the Coker ruling so that the death penalty could not be issued if the child is still alive after raping. Once again, the court used the publicÃ¢â¬â¢s opinion in determining this. Only 6 states allowed execution from raping, clearly defining the views against it. In 2002, the court case Ring v. Arizona, the court ruled through the Sixth Amendment that a jury, rather than a judge had the right to issue the capital punishment.The 2006 case of Brown v. Sanders solidified that verdict. The Supreme Court had not taken up an execution method case for 117 years until Baze v. Reese determi ned that the lethal injection was constitutional. These cases narrowed down who the death penalty was constitutional for. Atkins v. Virginia in 2002, the court determined that executing a mentally retarded human is cruel and unconstitutional. Also, in Bobby v. Bies, states had the authority to conduct tests to determine the mentality of a criminal. To protect the rights of juveniles, the 2005 Roger v. Simmons case stated that it was unconstitutional for the state to administer the death penalty for juveniles because of lack of maturity and responsibility (Cornell Law, Death Penalty). Methods for administering the death penalty have also fallen under the anger of critics. The two most common methods of execution, lethalShow MoreRelatedThe History of Capital Punishment1239 Words Ã |Ã 5 Pagesstatements, and there was no DNA evidence or murder weapon found (Pilkington). How can a manÃ¢â¬â¢s life be taken in such an unfair and cruel way? The world should make capital punishment illegal, recognizing it as a moral and ethical mistake, a cruel and misguided injustice, and an impractical and wasteful act. Capital punishment has a complicated history, both worldwide and particularly in the United States. Due to the efforts of human rights groups and evolutions in society, the world has many fewer executionsRead MoreHistory of Capital Punishment in America779 Words Ã |Ã 3 PagesCapital Punishment, the process by which the government takes the life of an offender for crimes committed against humanity. Capital Punishment also referred to as the Ã¢â¬Å"death penaltyÃ¢â¬ has played a role in the correctional process dating back to 1608 in Jamestown. Over the years the use of Capital Punishment has fluctuated. Like most areas of corrections the death penalty has become reformed and altered to needs of modern day society. Like most controversial issues the majority of people haveRead MoreHistory of Capital Punishment Essay997 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesHistory of Capital Punishment In the history of the world, the punishment for murder, or homicide, has generally been Ã¢â¬Å"the death penaltyÃ¢â¬ . This seems to be the most logical punishment. If someone intentionally kills an innocent human being, why should he be able to live? Or should he? Should he be forced to suffer for the remainder of his life for this terrible crime? There are many arguments and opinions on this topic; many reasons why we should sentence murderers to death, but many reasonsRead More The History of Capital Punishment Essay2004 Words Ã |Ã 9 PagesThe History of Capital Punishment Ã Ã Ã Ã Ã Crime has been a plague on society from ancient times to present. In response to this plague, society has formed structured rules to deal with the perpetrators of crime. A crime can be defined as act that societyÃ¢â¬â¢s government deems as illegal. Different societies have formed various methods and standards for evaluating crime and assigning corresponding punishment. What constitutes a crime has changed throughout the course of history. In ancient timesRead More The History and Public Opinion of Capital Punishment Essay4449 Words Ã |Ã 18 PagesThe History and Public Opinion of Capital Punishment The history of the death penalty goes back to the earliest civilizations where it was used to punish all sorts of crimes from robbery, to murder, to different forms of heresy. In the United States it evolved to just punish murder, treason, and some cases of rape. It has been an issue that has sparked a never ending debate that goes back to colonial times. The general public traditionally supported the death penalty in a majorityRead MoreThe History of Capital Punishment as a Deterrent to Crime Essay2614 Words Ã |Ã 11 Pagesconcerning capital punishment, or the death penalty. Through the passing of time, our society castigates transgressors with the death penalty. Many nations through time have decided to enact this harsh treatment. In the United States alone, the federal government has persevered to reinforce people to death (Marzillo 10). According to Wikipedia Encyclopedia, Ã¢â¬Å"Capital Punishment is the execution of a person by judicial process as a punishment for an off ense.Ã¢â¬ Over the centuries capital punishment has beenRead MoreThe Effects Of Capital Punishment On Society1516 Words Ã |Ã 7 Pages Capital Punishment Tyra L. Ferguson SYP4514: Patterns of Violence in Society University of Central Florida Introduction Capital punishment was first noted in America in the early 1600Ã¢â¬â¢s (Ã¢â¬Å"Part I: History ofÃ¢â¬ , 2014). Much like most of the laws in America, capital punishment was brought here and influenced by European settlers (Ã¢â¬Å"Part I: History ofÃ¢â¬ , 2014). Many crimes that were punishable by death in its infancy in America ranged from stealing fruit to murder. Capital punishmentRead MoreBureau Of Justice Statistics : The United States Primary Source For Criminal Justice1439 Words Ã |Ã 6 PagesCapital Punishment. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). U.S. Department of Justice. 25 Nov. 2014. Web. Web. 25 Nov. 2014. Bureau of Justice Statistics is the United States primary source for criminal justice statistics. The website has published information on crime, criminal offenders, victims of crime, and the operation of justice systems at all levels of government. According to Bureau of Justice Statistics, Ã¢â¬Å"The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) is a component of the OfficeRead MoreThe Death Penalty Throughout History1074 Words Ã |Ã 5 Pagesdevelopment of the death penalty throughout history. It begins with a brief explanation of the origins of capital punishment, referencing the first known documentation of actions punishable by death. The paper goes on to explore different methods of execution and how they have progressed and changed over the years. Documented cases at different points of history are referenced to show the relationship of time periods and beliefs to the implementation of capital punishment. Finally, the development of differentRead MoreThe Death Penalt y Of Capital Punishment1480 Words Ã |Ã 6 Pagessystem, such as the death penalty. Capital punishment has been used many times in history all around the world, and it was quite popular. Many people argue that capital punishment is useful in deterring crime and that it is only fair that criminals receive death as punishment for a heinous crime. On the contrary, others see the death penalty as a violation of the 8th amendment. It restricts excessive fines, and it also does not allow cruel and unusual punishment to be inflicted upon criminals. Although
Sunday, December 22, 2019
Why College Athletes Should Be Paid, and How The NCAA Can Do That The NCAA and the universities represented by it are now making more money than ever through their athletic programs than ever before. However, due to amateurism regulations set by the NCAA, the college athletes that generate the massive revenue the NCAA receives are not paid at all. The article opens with the argument that college athletes should be paid for their play. The argument is supported through information proving that the NCAA undervalues athletes through the money they generate for their school versus the amount of scholarship money the school provides them with. The article also discusses how the NCAA also prevents athletes from marketing their own image andÃ¢â¬ ¦show more contentÃ¢â¬ ¦In fact, collegiate athletes are not permitted to use their own image for personal profit, as it violates the NCAAÃ¢â¬â¢s rules on amateurism. Paying college athletes has been debated and argued about for years, with tens ions increasing on both sides. However, one idea remains clear. The NCAA needs to compensate college athletes, and can do so through salaries, compensation for games played, or through endorsement deals. The NCAA is one of the largest sports organizations in the world, representing college athletics through three divisions and over twenty different sports. It is a multi billion dollar business that brings in revenue through ticket sales, television contracts, and sale of memorabilia. However, with none of the profits going towards the athletes themselves, the NCAA is using their students for personal gain within the organization. There are multiple ways the NCAA profits off its athletes, by undervaluing players and giving them less compensation because of it, as well as limiting their opportunities to make money on their own. Critics of compensating college athletes claim that the scholarships the players receive is enough compensation for their play, as well as earning an educatio n. John Thelin of Time Magazine states that since scholarships are not taxed, it becomes a better deal for athletes. He says an athlete with a $65,000 scholarship would be more financiallyShow MoreRelatedwhy college athletes should be paid1388 Words Ã |Ã 6 PagesÃ¯ » ¿ Why Collegiate Athletes Should be Paid In our world, people who bring in money with their talents are usually compensated for their efforts. It makes complete sense right? Well for college athletes, they bring in billions of dollars worth of revenue for their school, but do not get compensated for their talents whatsoever. Most people argue that only professional athletes should be paid because it is their profession, but people do not take in account for all the hard work and effort these studentRead MoreWhy College Athletes Should Not Be Paid1301 Words Ã |Ã 6 PagesNovember 2015 Why College Athletes Should Not Be Paid What amount of money should college athletes be paid? This has been a controversial question for many years.Some lower level Division One NCAA athletes think that their scholarships do not pay them enough as it is, and instead they want cash rather than the scholarship. These situations have been taken to court and arbitrated in NCAA hearings. The NCAA, or the National College Athletics Association, has declined for the athletes to be paid a salaryRead MoreWhy College Athletes Should Be Paid1047 Words Ã |Ã 5 Pagespeople get paid for the service, so why are college athletes not paid for performing a service with their athletic abilities? Almost anyone who is involved with sports, whether it be watching them or playing them, has an opinion on whether or not college athletes should be paid. My opinion on this controversy is that college athletes should be paid. College sports make billions of dollars, so there is definitely room for athletes to payed in some way. There are three mai n reasons as to why I believeRead MoreWhy College Athletes Should Be Paid807 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesJoshua Davis Ms. Hammons Junior English 5th Hour 30 march 2017 Why College Athletes Should Be Paid College athletes have much more responsibilities to worry about than pros, and scholarships don t help athletes that much and they often donÃ¢â¬â¢t even finish college. The problem is college athletes don t get paid when they have twice the responsibilities of pro athletes. college athletes have to juggle their sport practices and games, being on the road a lot of the time, going to classes everydayRead MoreWhy College Athletes Should NOT be Paid1773 Words Ã |Ã 8 Pagesstudent-athletes has begun major conversations and arguments nationwide with people expressing their take on it. Ã¢â¬Å"This tension has been going on for years. It has gotten greater now because the magnitude of dollars has gotten really largeÃ¢â¬ (NCAA). I am a student athlete at Nicholls State University and at first thought, I thought it would be a good idea to be able to be paid as a student-athlete.After much research however; I have come to many conclusions why the payment of athletes should not takeRea d MoreWhy Should College Athletes Be Paid767 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesThe magnitude of the controversy to pay college athletes has intensified over the past few years. It might be due to the prevailing economic atmosphere causing everyone, including aspiring athletes, to look for new ways to make money. It might also be due to many higher educational facilities giving the public access to their annual budget, causing outsiders to focus on the profit of specific athletic programs. However, it might also be due to the coachesÃ¢â¬â¢ outrageous salaries and the money that universitiesRead MoreWhy Should College Athletes Get Paid1551 Words Ã |Ã 7 Pagesthat professionals get paid for the revenue that they bring in while NCAA athletes do not. It is time for change, college athletes should be monetarily compensated because they are the ones who have made the NCAA profitable for many years. The idea of college athletes getting paid has been at the center of the sports world because there are a variety of opinions surrounding this topic. Raymond G. Schneider pointed out that some agree with the idea of athletes getting paid because coaches are allowedRead MoreWhy College Athletes Should Get Paid1309 Words Ã |Ã 6 PagesEbeling 1 Austin Ebeling English 115 Why College Athletes Should Get Paid And Why They ShouldnÃ¢â¬â¢t November 18, 2014 Ebeling 2 Intro: How much harder would athletes work if they were paid for their performance on the field, track, or court? College athletes are put to the test each and everyday, they risk their health to entertain millions day in and day out. College athletes deserve part of the money due to the revenue they bring in for their schools and for the NCAA, they deserve theRead MoreCollege Athletes: Why They Should be Paid Essay1233 Words Ã |Ã 5 PagesCollege athletics have been incredibly profitable businesses for many years. With the advent of televised sporting events, the profit margin has increased exponentially. The Texas LonghornsÃ¢â¬â¢ football program alone grosses 104 million dollars annually (forbes.com). So, where is all that money going? Most of it goes right back to the school. The athletes who practice for endless hours and devote their lives to the sports get nothing but the satisfaction of winning. So, should Division One collegeRead MoreWhy Should College Athletes Be Paid Essay88 8 Words Ã |Ã 4 PagesCollege Athletes Paid to Play The amount of money made over the past twelve years in football and basketball has increased to about 300%, which helps fund all other sports (Meshefejian). College coaches are receiving a numerous amount of money for what the players are doing out on the court or field. Also, some athletes feel they need to excel more in the sport than in the classroom which can jeopardize their future. Student-athletes have other costs they need to pay for, but they have no time for
Saturday, December 14, 2019
If I Backslide Knowing that if I wear the wrong thing, Veronica will say I have ruined her night Ã¢â¬â the way she did that one time when I wore Bermuda shorts and sandals to a dress-up dinner Ã¢â¬â I canÃ¢â¬â¢t stop thinking about what I am going to wear to her dinner party, so much that I donÃ¢â¬â¢t even remember itÃ¢â¬â¢s Friday, and therefore, time to see Dr. Patel, until Mom calls down in the middle of my workout, saying, Ã¢â¬Å"WeÃ¢â¬â¢re leaving in fifteen minutes. Hit the shower!Ã¢â¬ In the cloud room, I pick the brown chair. We will write a custom essay sample on The Silver Linings Playbook Chapter 9 or any similar topic only for you Order Now We recline, and Cliff says, Ã¢â¬Å"Your mother tells me youÃ¢â¬â¢ve had quite a week. Want to talk about it?Ã¢â¬ So I tell him about VeronicaÃ¢â¬â¢s dress-up party and how my old dress clothes donÃ¢â¬â¢t fit because I have lost so much weight, and I have no swanky clothes other than the shirt my brother has recently given me, and I am pretty stressed out about going to a dinner party and wish I could just spend some time alone with Ronnie lifting weights, so that I would not have to see Veronica, who even Nikki says is a mean person. Dr. Patel nods a few times like he does, and then says, Ã¢â¬Å"Do you like the new shirt your brother gave you? Do you feel comfortable wearing it?Ã¢â¬ I tell him I absolutely love my new shirt. Ã¢â¬Å"So wear that one to the dress-up dinner, and IÃ¢â¬â¢m sure Veronica will like it too.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"Are you sure?Ã¢â¬ I ask. Ã¢â¬Å"Because Veronica is really particular about what you should wear to dinner parties.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"IÃ¢â¬â¢m sure,Ã¢â¬ he says, which makes me feel a whole lot better. Ã¢â¬Å"What about pants?Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"WhatÃ¢â¬â¢s wrong with the pants you have on now?Ã¢â¬ I look down at the tan khakis my mom purchased for me at the Gap the other day because she says I shouldnÃ¢â¬â¢t wear sweatpants to my doctorÃ¢â¬â¢s appointments, and even though the pants are not as swanky as my new Eagles jersey, they do look okay, so I shrug and stop worrying about what to wear to VeronicaÃ¢â¬â¢s dinner party. Cliff tries to get me to talk about Kenny G, but I only close my eyes, hum a single note, and silently count to ten every time he says Mr. GÃ¢â¬â¢s name. Then Cliff says he knows that I have been rough with my mother, shaking her in the kitchen and knocking her down in the attic, which makes me really sad because I love my mom so much and she rescued me from the bad place and has even signed all those legal documents Ã¢â¬â and yet I cannot rightly deny what Cliff has said. My chest heats up with guilt until I canÃ¢â¬â¢t take it. Truth be told, I break down and cry Ã¢â¬â sobbing Ã¢â¬â for at least five minutes. Ã¢â¬Å"Your mother is risking a lot, because she believes in you.Ã¢â¬ His words make me cry even harder. Ã¢â¬Å"You want to be a good person, donÃ¢â¬â¢t you, Pat?Ã¢â¬ I nod. I cry. I do want to be a good person. I really do. Ã¢â¬Å"IÃ¢â¬â¢m going to up your meds,Ã¢â¬ Dr. Patel tells me. Ã¢â¬Å"You might feel a little sluggish, but it should help to curb your violent outbursts. You need to know itÃ¢â¬â¢s your actions that will make you a good person, not desire. And if you have any more episodes, I might have to recommend that you go back to the neural health facility for more intensive treatments, which Ã¢â¬â Ã¢â¬Å" Ã¢â¬Å"No. Please. IÃ¢â¬â¢ll be good,Ã¢â¬ I say quickly, knowing that Nikki is less likely to return if I backslide into the bad place. Ã¢â¬Å"Trust me.Ã¢â¬ Ã¢â¬Å"I do,Ã¢â¬ Dr. Patel replies with a smile. How to cite The Silver Linings Playbook Chapter 9, Essay examples
Friday, December 6, 2019
Question : Section 1: Identification of appropriate research designs Give a brief background to set context, and state your question. Using the scholarlyliterature to support your work, answer the following questions. (1)What type of question is this? (2)What is the most suitable research design to answer this question?What ethical considerations that would need to be addressed in order to carry outsuch a study? Section 2: Evaluation of a research article Find an original research article (ie NOT a review) that provides evidence to answer thequestion. Give the full citation for the article first, and then using the scholarly literature tosupport your work, answer the following questions. (1)What is the study design used in the article? (2)What methods did the researcher/s use to collect and analyse their data, and why? (3)What are the key findings of the study? (4)How do these findings help to answer your clinical question, considering yourpopulation and practice setting? Answer : Section 1: Identification of appropriate research design Health care support and knowledge of effective health care practice are two crucial requirements for the wellbeing of the societal health. Similar to the adoption of optimum intervention and treatment regime, it is important to utilize and monitor some of the key requirements in routine practice. Hand washing is one of the effective practices, which is necessary to be followed for effective health restoration of self as well as for the patients to be addressed for effective health care services (Grol 2013, 167). The incorporation of this practice is important for not only the professionals involved in health care practices, but also in the domestic and routine daily life activities. For the purpose of present research, the PICO based approach is aimed in addressing the question, Does hand washing stop infection? (1)The adopted pattern of research in conjunction to the present scope of the report, can be made framed in quantitative approach. Such approach will be based on objective of collective numerical data that can be analyzed using suitable mathematical and statistical methods for finding significance and relevance of the research. It is hence these significant numerical results can be further used to elucidate psychological and relevant noteworthy results. On the other hand, the use of qualitative research is used to collect ideology and views that can be further helpful for prediction and determination of the hypothesis and corresponding inference (Can, 2011, pp.485). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are useful in this regard, as they help in making the results valid, robust and precise for the identification of true positive results. In other words, it can be said that the approach is helpful for the exclusion of false positive results. (2)Use of RCTs in finding the true positive results in conjunction to any research question is important as because it helps in providing predictable, reliable and sufficient results. Furthermore, while accounting of the importance of evidence based research, it is more important to consider the unbiased control study. This not only helps in extracting un-biased information but will also have a provision of including control study. This on the other hand, fetch option towards the ease of comparison and precise way of judgment (Shrank, 2011, pp.546). The concerned question in the present report is to consider the effectiveness and efficacy of hand washing in conjunction to the control and spread of infection. Thus, the group to be considered for the study should be based on a group following regular practice of hand washing, whereas another group not practicing the hand washing practice. Other than this, the individual involved in hand washing practice should be exempted from the cons ideration of this research work. The ethical consideration is based on taking consent for the individuals involved in following the requisite guidelines for the scope of research and that the reliance of research output will be based on their views and inference. Section 2: Evaluation of a research article In conjunction to the present research scope of this report, the concerned prospect is to find out the effectiveness and efficacy of hand washing practice against the prevention of infection. It is hence for the same work, the adopted research article is, Increasing the frequency of hand washing by healthcare workers does not lead to commensurate reductions in staphylococcal infection in a hospital ward (Beggs, 2008, pp. 114). (1)The quantitative type of research work presented by the author in the article is considered in a medical ward of health care setting. More importantly, the impact of hand washing practice was studies in conjunction to infection caused by staphylococcal species. Based on the general indication that the infection by staphylococcal species can be transmitted with the infected hands from the colony formed by the concurrent species. It is hence, the general indication being that without the practice of proper hand washing, there is higher chances of acquired infection with the species. Such impact of imperfect hand washing can be thus revealed with the help of infection, as per the hypothesis of the authors. (2)As discussed in the previous section, the hypothesis for the concern is whether hand-washing practice can be helpful in preventing the infection. With the same hypothesis, the authors have concluded the research for the aim of impact of hand cleaning over the transmission of infection. The grouping of the patients were made by the authors into two parts, one where the members are susceptible with staphylococcus infection and another group where the number of colonized patients are present. The total number of subjects (individuals) under consideration are thus constant throughout the time-period of intervention. Similarly, in another group, one part is individuals not affected with the infection and another part, which are colonized with the infection in temporary terms. The removal rate of the un-colonized patients is thus considered as impact, which also includes removals due to death, transfer to another ward with more severe form of infection and discharge with health recovery. Based on the inference obtained with the help of the experimental results, the numerical terms are not further processed for statistical inference, but are subjected to mathematical modeling. On the contrary, with the help of mathematical modeling, the obtained numerical factors were considered with the help of differential equation. More precise detail of the mathematical modeling and coefficient factors that are used with the help of studies can be obtained and read in the paper. Hence, the final conclusion was made with the help of differential equation, which gives inference, either the infection will be removed or will be acquired even after the hand washing practice. (3)The key finding of the suggested research article, can be said not to be in accordance to the hypothesis of the authors. More accurately, it was revealed with the controlled study, that the effectiveness of hand washing is not probable for the control of the staphylococcus infection. It was found in the that the hand washing in general terms is not an effective control measure, as the transmission being still dynamic in both the groups. Moreover, the return of the infection is also not being controlled. The benefit of hand washing is there as revealed by the authors, but the effect is not more than 20%. The infection state despite of the hand washing, is still dependent on the contact made with the contact made to the infected patients. The complication rate is that was incurred in 40 percent of the colonized patients were also found to be occurring even with the adoption of precise hand washing practice. On the contrary, it was found that ward management, hawthorne effect, and en vironmental contamination was found to be in control with the adoption of such practices. For precisely the deterministic mathematical modeling used for the understanding of the hand washing practice was found to be a hygienic practice, but is not effective for the purpose of prevention of staphylococcus infection. The average prevalence of the staphylococcal infection in hospital ward are not found to be reducing in the course of assessment by the authors. Such inference was derived on the basis of inconsistency in the outbreaks of staphylococcal infection. (4)It can be said that with the help of this study, the authors concluded that simple hand washing practice is not effective in the progression of crucial infection such as by staphylococcus species. Other than this the limitations included within the study, are not being discussed by the authors. These limitations can be attributed to the use of other agents such as disinfectant or alcohol based hand wash agents, or use of medication in the solvent for the hand washing purpose was not being discussed by the authors. Certainly, inclusion of these elements in the study, may have potential to increase the importance and specification for the future course of medication specification. Hand washing in general is an effective practice that should be adopted for the clean and hygienic purpose, that is useful for the effectiveness in health restoration and health management purpose. With respect to the population side, it is useful for the inclusion of criteria such as gastric and respirato ry diseases. Certainly, these things are effective for the avoiding of many of crucial infection such as infection caused by pathogenic stains of E. coli and parasitic infection where spores can be transferred with the help of soil contact. Other than this, cleaning of the hospital ward or domestic area with the help of disinfectant agents or medicated solutions is also important for the communication of disease. In other words, hand washing is an effective process for the health restoration and management, but it is also true that the said practice is not effective in control of all kind of infection. Conclusion : In conclusion, the said report is based on the clinical question for the research, on the assumption, whether the hand washing practice is effective for the control of the infection. The approach for the research is PICO(T) model and will be considered on the population study (Polit Beck, 2013, pp.400). In order to collect the evidence in conjunction to the same study, a research paper was collected and reviewed to understand the hypothesis analysis, understanding of the ideology for carrying out the research and the basic inference of the research work was carried out. More importantly, with the help of literature review, designing of randomized controlled study was also analyzed with the help of this study. Particularly, from this paper, it was revealed that hand washing is not found to be effective for the certain infection, whereas there are many infection especially parasitic one, which can be controlled or prevented with the help of routine hand washing practice. It is hence t he inclusion of such studies for the future scope of research can prove worthy and make sense for the inclusion of such practice in routine health care practices and domestic purpose. Reference: Beggs, CB, Shepherd, SJ, Kerr, KG 2008. Increasing the frequency of hand washing by healthcare workers does not lead to commensurate reductions in staphylococcal infection in a hospital ward. BMC infectious diseases, 8(1), pp.114. Grol, R., Wensing, M., Eccles, M., Davis, D. (Eds.). 2013. Improving patient care: the implementation of change in health care. John Wiley Sons, pp.167-189. Can, OS, Yilmaz, AA, Hasdogan, M, Alkaya, F, Turhan, SC, Can, MF, Alanoglu, Z 2011. Has the quality of abstracts for randomised controlled trials improved since the release of Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trial guideline for abstract reporting? A survey of four high-profile anaesthesia journals. European Journal of Anaesthesiology (EJA), 28(7), pp.485-492. Shrank, WH, Patrick, AR, Brookhart, MA 2011. Healthy user and related biases in observational studies of preventive interventions: a primer for physicians. Journal of general internal medicine, 26(5), pp.546-550. Polit, DF, Beck, CT 2013. Essentials of nursing research: Appraising evidence for nursing practice. Lippincott Williams Wilkins, pp.400-458
Thursday, November 28, 2019
Cask Of Amontillado The Cask of Amontillado The author of The Cask of Amontillado, Edgar Allan Poe, lets us know in the opening sentence that the character telling the story, Montresor, vows revenge. Montresors target of revenge is Fortunato, but Montresor never specifically says what Fortunato did to him or his family. However, Montresors fear of Fortunato avenging any threat of revenge leads us to believe his plan is well thought out and executed in a very matter of fact way. Seeking this revenge on Fortunato has not made Montresor feel guilty for what he has done. It seems as if revenge is just part of his nature. Throughout the story, it seems as if Montresor has every bit of his revenge on Fortunato planned out. He could not have chosen a better time or place to commit his act of revenge. He knows that during carnival season, or as we know it Mardi Gras, everyone in town will be dressed in a costume with a mask, drinking, and not paying attention to much that is going on outside of the carnival. Montresor knows that Fortunato will be at the carnival and more than likely drinking. Another part of Montresors plan is to use reverse psychology. The story reads, I had told them that I should not return until the morning, and had given them explicit orders not to stir from the house. Montresor says this because he knows that his servants will also want to celebrate at the carnival so if they know he will not be there they will leave. Montresor used this psychology a few times on Fortunato. As Fortunato began to cough heavily, Montresor says, We will go back; your health is preciousyou will be ill, and I cannot be responsible. Besides, there is Luchresi-. Montresor is not at all worried about Fortunatos cough. Montresor chooses wine because he knows that it is something Fortunato is interested in and that he is extremely proud of his knowledge of it. During their discussion, Montresor plays to Fortunatos arrogance by comparing his abilities to Luchresi. Montresor sounds concerned about Fortunatos health up until his final act of revenge. Montresors family crest is a human foot crushing a serpent. The family motto reads, No one challenges me with impunity. This translates into Montresor being the human foot that is crushing Fortunato. Montresor did not let Fortunato get away with whatever insult he gave to him. This is what makes revenge part of Montresors nature. If this were what he believes in, then of course he would not feel guilty about it. Montresor says to Fortunato, You are rich, respected, admired, beloved; you are happy as I once was. This could lead a reader to believe that Montresor killed Fortunato because it made him feel more powerful. That may have been what made him happy. Perhaps that is why he took his precious time putting the last stone in the wall. He was enjoying what he had done. Montresors well-planned and executed act of revenge still sounds so matter of fact some fifty years later as he is telling his story to someone. As he is finishing the story, he points out that no one has run across the rock walled tomb where he left Fortunato. Montresor does not seem to convey any guilt as he finishes his story with, May he rest in peace! English Essays